Megaport Ltd: FY26 Results Preview: Expect solid underlying results, with compute ramp-up in focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Megaport Ltd

FY26 Results Preview: Expect solid underlying results,

with compute ramp-up in focus

Expectations into the result: MP1 will report FY26 results on Thursday, 20

August. The company has undergone a transformational shift since the acquisition

of Latitude.sh as subsequent demand for compute capacity has almost doubled the

ARR of the business and diluted the core networking segment contribution. With

that being said, the scale and timing of the compute ramp ultimately dilutes how

meaningful the FY26 results and FY27 guidance will be on the combined business.

We see EBITDA $72m (in-line w/ guidance $64-76m & consensus $71m), with the

FY27 outlook to be determined by the deployment timing of compute contracts.

We set MP1 as our top pick across our TMT coverage as part of the Mid-Year

Prospects series (here). We assume coverage of MP1 with an OW rating and a Jun27 PT of $28/sh.

Compute. MP1 announced an aggregate $301m of strategic contract ARR in

the half, which drives our FY26 Compute ARR forecast to $392m (from $68m

at 1H26). Excl. the contracts, we see base compute ARR US$65m (A$91m),

up +44% h/h on a constant currency basis. The supply/demand environment for

GPU compute will likely remain constrained, which should continue to be

supportive of further compute contract wins in the near term, particularly given

industry news flow surrounding open-source and open-weight model ability/

efficiency. Importantly for MP1, we forecast contract billing from 1H/2H27,

and the GPU pool billing from 1H28, which could drive upside should

hardware be deployed ahead of those dates. Timing of hardware purchases will

also impact FY26 capex and FY27 guidance, with the $90-100m FY26

guidance exclusive of strategic investment (~A$527m) which could land in

FY27.

Networking. While the core network segment contribution to the group will

be diluted as the compute segment ramps, recent updates point to strong

revenue growth. As at April, MP1 reported Networking ARR +22% (excl.

India) on a constant currency basis, with NRR (by logo) increasing to 113%

(from 111% at 1H26).…