JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update: July issuance review: Another month of record gross but low net; Curveball, DISH DBS CDS default impact and CDX.IG S47 roll preview published

研报英文原文证据摘录

North America Credit Research

05 August 2026

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Nathaniel Rosenbaum, CFA AC

(1-212) 834-2370

JPMORGAN

JPM Daily Credit Strategy Update

July issuance review: Another month of record gross but low net; Curveball, DISH DBS

CDS default impact and CDX.IG S47 roll preview published

We published our monthly US High Grade Corporate Bond Issuance Review yesterday:

Gross issuance: HG bond issuance in July was a record for the month at $141bn, up 44% vs the past four-year July average of

$98bn. So far this year, 3 out of the 7 months have been new records for that month (Jan, Jun and Jul). The YTD supply tally is

$1,333bn and represents 70% of our full-year forecast of $1.92tr. Extrapolating the YTD pace and the typical monthly supply

distribution would suggest a FY forecast closer to $2.04tr.

Maturities, coupons, and net issuance: There was $89bn of maturities resulting in net issuance of $52bn. Accounting for

coupon income of $42bn, “net net” issuance was just $10bn. Looking ahead, average gross issuance for August over the past four

years has been $97bn. Maturities are $72bn and coupons $37bn this August.

What’s interesting this month: The Tech sector accounted for 34% of overall issuance in July, the highest monthly share for the

sector on record ($48bn overall, led by $25bn from AMZN and $12.3bn from TXEDCI). With the sharp move higher in rates, the

average coupon gap between new issues and maturing bonds in July widened to 239bp (+62bp MoM), the highest since Nov

2023.

New issue performance: New issues tightened by 10bp from the day of issuance to the end of July while the index widened by

5bp over the same time period. This 15bp of outperformance is the most since April 2025. 60% of this par-weighted performance

was driven by just one bond though (TXEDCI), with 29% of new issues wider or less than 2bp tighter by the end of the month.

M&A funding slowed in July, with three issuers issuing $3.2bn, the lowest since May 2025. That said, YTD M&A supply stands

at $150bn, up 40% YoY, and along with the additional $114bn expected, our FY26 M&A forecast now stands at $263bn (~14% of

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