FY27 Adj. EPS Guide Well Ahead Of Cons; Volume vs. Price Assumptions Will Be The Key Focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 5, 2026 11:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Kennametal Inc. | North America

Angel Castillo

Equity Analyst

FY27 Adj. EPS Guide Well

Ahead Of Cons; Volume vs.

Price Assumptions Will Be The

Key Focus

Stefan Diaz, CFA

Equity Analyst

Oliver Jiang

Research Associate

Esther O Osinaiya

Research Associate

Kennametal Inc. (KMT.N, KMT US)

Machinery & Construction | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Weakens our thesis

Meaningful upside

Meaningful revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Equal-weight

Attractive

$31.00

$36.06

$2,859

$43.78-17.63

Key Takeaways

F4Q26 Adj. EPS of $2.96 beat vs. MSe / cons of $2.30

FY27 Adj. EPS outlook of $4.15-5.15 came in well ahead of MSe $2.86 and cons

$3.82

Stock Reaction: Expect a move higher given bit beat and FY27 guide ahead of

cons that are likely to cause a short squeeze, pending further mgmt commentary.

See below for notable takeaways from KMT's earnings release and conference

call. For a more detailed variance table of results vs. expectations see Exhibit

1 and guidance update summary table in Exhibit 2 .

• (+) FY27 Adj. EPS outlook of $4.15-5.15 came in well ahead of MSe $2.86

and cons $3.82.

° (+) 1Q27 Adj. EPS guide of $2.50-2.80 came in ahead of MSe of $1.26

and cons of $1.62

• (+) F4Q26 Adj. EPS of $2.96 beat vs. MSe / cons of $2.30.

• (+) FY27 Sales outlook $3.33-3.45B implying 43% YoY growth vs MSe

7.3% / cons 15.3, driven by an underlying 1-4% volume growth assumption

and 40-43% price and tariff surcharge realization. Management further

indicated that "Looking ahead, we are encouraged by the volume trends we

have seen across several end markets and expect those improving

conditions, along with our strategic initiatives, to continue to drive sales

growth throughout fiscal 2027."

° (=/-) FY27 organic growth assumptions reflect volume growth of ~1%

…