Coupang: 2Q slight margin miss, Mixed guidance, Await rapid recovery from 4Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Coupang

2Q slight margin miss, Mixed guidance, Await rapid

recovery from 4Q

Overweight

CPNG, CPNG US

Price (04 Aug 26):$16.78

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$24.00

Prior (Dec-26):$26.00

2Q26 consolidated revenue rose 10% YoY on a CC basis, coming in at the high end

of guidance (9-10%) and in line with our expectations. Adj. EBITDA margin was

1.8%, slightly below our estimate due to ongoing P.C. margin pressure (elevated

marketing cost and weaker volume-based savings). Despite strong underlying

demand (P.C. user spend +16% YoY, excluding the missing cohort), 3Q revenue/

margin guidance was disappointing, likely driving negative Street revisions for

3Q/4Q (JPM cuts adj. EBITDA by 35%/6%) and weighing on near-term sentiment.

We recommend buying on weakness, supported by: 1) limited downside risk to

guidance with upside if WoW user returns improve, 2) a margin trough in 3Q

followed by rapid recovery from 4Q, and 3) improved visibility into 2027 earnings/

margins under management’s mid-term framework. We reiterate OW and trim our

Dec-26 PT to $24, based on a 19.2x target 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple.

Slight 2Q earnings miss. 2Q consolidated revenue of US$8.9B (10% y/y on

a CC basis) came in-line with our expectations at the higher end of mgmt’s

guidance (9~10% y/y). P.C rev growth came in at 8.0% y/y on a CC basis,

compared to 5.0% y/y in 1Q. Mgmt emphasized: 1) the spend (GMV) of all

customers, excluding those that left during the data breach incident and haven’t

returned, is growing 16% y/y, 2) the gap (8% rev growth vs 16% GMV growth)

is driven mostly by the missing cohort, indicating the actual loss of WoW users

back in Dec~Jan was significantly larger than market expectations. D.O rev

sustained strong growth of 24% y/y on a CC basis, thanks to strong growth of

Eats rev, in our view. Consolidated Adj.EBITDA margin came in at 1.8% (vs

guidance of 1.0~2.0%), a slight miss to our estimate (2.0%), while P.C

adj.EBITDA margin edged up to 5.1%, but missed our estimate of 5.4%. Mgmt

commented that lingering P.C margin pressure is coming from elevated

marketing costs, subdued volume-based savings in the supply chain, and

…