WiseTech Global: FY26 Result Preview - Undemanding Cargowise expectations, expect more clarity on cost-out

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

WiseTech Global

FY26 Result Preview - Undemanding Cargowise

expectations, expect more clarity on cost-out

Expectations into the result: WTC will report FY26 results on Wednesday 26th

August. We sit broadly in-line with BBG consensus at the bottom-end of

Cargowise revenue guidance, reflecting a softer outlook on the re-acceleration in

the pace of growth and near-term caution on upside from the CVP transition. The

focus will be on Cargowise guidance for FY27, with several moving parts

including LGFF pricing/rollout, and net pricing impact for smaller customers

transitioning to the CVP. Focus will also be on guidance for FY27 margin and exitrate to give a clearer indication of the run-rate margin profile of the group post

cost-out. We assume coverage of WTC at a Neutral rating and Dec-26 PT of $40/sh.

Cargowise revenue. We sit broadly in-line with consensus (JPMe 15% vs.

consensus 14%) at the bottom-end of WTC’s Cargowise revenue growth

guidance (14-21%). We do not see upside to the CVP transition impacting

FY26, with transitional pricing protections in place, no upside from contracted

LGFF transitions, and product rollout likely to come through from FY27/28+.

We expect a similarly wide range for FY27 guidance, as the company will have

solid visibility into the lower-bound, with upside again from early LGFF

transitions. Our 16% FY27 growth estimate broadly reflects ~10pts from

LGFF customer rollout/pricing, with the balance coming from smaller

customer CVP transitions.

Cost-out. WTC announced cost-out of ~2,000 headcount in February, albeit

with limited detail on gross vs. net cost impact (we have assumed ~$200m

gross cost-out). Focus at the result will be 1) timing of redundancies and

associated costs, which we expect a large amount will land in FY27 and weigh

on period margin (JPMe FY27 group EBITDA margin 45%, +5pts y/y), and 2)

potential further cost efficiencies to drive upside on exit-rate margins (JPMe

FY28 54% vs. consensus 52%) vs. pre-e2Open margin (FY25: 53% excl. M&A

costs).

Progress on product development. The pace of product development and

…