Shenzhou International (2313): 1H26 preview: multiple headwinds, sequential improvement in 2H - maintain OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Overweight

Shenzhou International (2313)

1H26 preview: multiple headwinds, sequential

improvement in 2H - maintain OW

2313.HK, 2313 HK

Price (05 Aug 26): HK$42.98

▼ Price Target (Dec-26): HK$70.00

We expect Shenzhou 1H26 sales to fall by LSD-MSD% yoy, mainly

dragged by Puma and Nike, partially offset by strong momentum in

Adidas and local brands including Anta and Li Ning. We expect the

GPM to fall by 2-3ppt yoy on multiple headwinds, including: 1) tariffsharing; 2) raw material price inflation in 2Q – this will take time to

pass through; and 3) FX volatility. Along with a lower non-operating

gain, we expect 1H26 earnings to fall by c30% yoy. Looking into 2H,

we expect sequential improvement in orders as we believe Shenzhou

will gain further wallet share among its core clients despite their

respective trends, potentially better sentiment among customers, as well

as a lower base. We expect 2H sales / earnings to go up by 10/13%,

improving from 1H's down by LSD-MSD/c30%, which should drive

stock re-rating. Maintain OW.

• Competitive advantages remain intact: we like Shenzhou’s: (1)

continuing overseas capacity expansion; (2) opportunities to gain

market share with core clients and steady relationship-building with

emerging clients; (3) consistent focus on ESG and automation to

drive sustainable growth; and (4) localization of overseas capacity.

We cut our FY27-28E earnings by 14-16% to reflect the macro

uncertainties. Our Dec-26 PT, which implies a 17x 12-month forward

P/E, falls to HK$70.

• Resilient growth across key clients, despite mixed end-market

trends. Adidas (covered by Wendy Liu, OW, see report) and Uniqlo

(covered by Dairo Murata, OW, see report), which together

accounted for 50% of Shenzhou's 2025 sales, remained the key

growth drivers: Adidas reported 35% apparel growth in 2Q on 30 Jul,

and increased full year sales guidance to 9-10% ex-FX growth (HSD

previously); while Uniqlo reported 22% growth in 3QFY26 (MarMay) on 9 Jul, and raised full-year sales guidance to 17% growth (15%

previously). In contrast, Nike (covered by Matthew Boss, UW, see

…