F3/27 1Q Results: Strong Results Raise Expectations Ahead of Third US Factory Start-up

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M

Update

August 5, 2026 10:42 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Kikkoman (2801) | Japan

Tomonobu Tsunoyama

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Strong

Results Raise Expectations

Ahead of Third US Factory

Start-up

Seki Li

Research Associate

Haruka Miyake

Equity Analyst

Jully Ussui

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

1Q business profit was ¥25.2bn (+29% YoY; our forecast ¥21.8bn; consensus

¥21.6bn).

Kikkoman (2801.T, 2801 JP)

Food | Japan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Avg daily trading value (bn)

Overweight

In-Line

¥1,800

¥1,594

¥1,545.2

¥5.3

1Q US soy sauce sales (local currency basis) rose 5.6% YoY (our assumption

+3%), while US wholesale business BP margin was 9.2% (7.5%).

The firm revised projected F3/27 impact of Middle East conflict to just under

¥8bn (initial plan ¥8-10bn). Price hikes are already planned in Japan/Europe/Asia.

We assume US soy sauce price hikes after Sep, when shipments from new plant

begin, partly to secure capacity for temporary pre-hike demand.

Implications for the stock: Positive. Not only did results beat consensus, but the

strong earnings also increase expectations for 2H, when shipments from the third

US plant will begin. Management explained that, though there was some timing

impact from ad & promotional expenses, 1Q business profit (local currency basis)

started above plan in both Japan and overseas. In Japan, high-margin soy milk sales

grew more than expected. Overseas, profitability improved not only in North

America, but also in Europe and Asia/Oceania.

Reaffirming the strength of North America: 1Q North American soy sauce sales

(LC) rose 5.6% YoY (full-year guidance of +3.5%), a strong start. With capacity

constrained ahead of September shipments from the new plant, management

concentrated marketing investment on higher-priced household products (while

…