Terna (TRN IM): Buy: On track for record investment levels

研报英文原文证据摘录

Terna (TRN IM): Buy: On track for record investment levels

4 August 2026

Terna (TRN IM) EquitiesElectric Utilities

Buy: On track for record investment levels Italy

◆ Solid start with FY26 confirmed and 1H covering c53% of

MAINTAIN BUY

FY26 net income guidance

◆ Strong execution on EUR17.7bn investment programme; TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)

business plan update likely in 1H 2027 11.00 11.00

◆ Maintain Buy; TP of EUR11.00 unchanged SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

9.97 +10.3%

1H26 highlights: (i) Terna reported 1H26 EBITDA of EUR1,467m (+8% YoY), driven (as of 31 Jul 2026)

by RAB-linked tariff growth and a strong 81% YoY increase in non-regulated MARKET DATA

EBITDA. Net income at EUR591m came in above expectations due to lower net Market cap (EURm) 20,044 Free float 100%

Market cap (USDm) 23,106 BBG TRN IM

financial expenses and a better EBITDA contribution. (ii) Terna recorded EUR74m 3m ADTV (USDm) 45 RIC TRN.MI

output-based incentives (ODIs) in 1H26, and confirmed the FY26 guidance of

EUR200m, suggesting a weighting to the second half of the year. (iii) FY26 guidance FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)

Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

reiterated: EUR4.41bn revenue, EUR2.93bn EBITDA, and EUR1.12bn net income. HSBC EPS 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.62

Terna is comfortably on track to at least meet FY26 income guidance, in our view, HSBC EPS (prev) 0.55 0.56 0.58 0.62

Change (%) 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0

with 1H net income accounting for 52.8% of FY guide. (iv) Execution of the Consensus EPS 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.60

investment plan is progressing well with 1H26 capex of EUR1,581m and PE (x) 18.0 17.6 17.2 16.2 Dividend yield (%) 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1

management reiterating FY26 guidance of EUR4.2bn, keeping Terna comfortably on EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 12.0 11.0 10.2

ROE (%) 15.2 15.6 15.3 15.5