Mexico: It‘s about supply and demand: Keep long-standing OW in Mbonos and OW MXN

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico: It‘s about supply and demand: Keep long-standing OW in Mbonos and OW MXN

Gisela Brant AC Global Markets Strategy

(1-212) 834-3947 04 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

gisela.brant@jpmchase.com

Afores to the fore

Midway through the implementation of the pension reform, growth in Afores’ assets

under management and their evolving role in financing government debt has been

remarkable. A central element of the reform was the increase of the contributions to

employees’ individual accounts from 6.5% of the base salary to 15%, phased in gradually

from 2023 through 2030 (Figure 4IncreasingcontributionratestranslateintoAUMgrowingatanaceleratingpace). For a more comprehensive discussion of the reform’s

various aspects, see our previous notes here and here. Figure 3NetinflowsintoAforesarematerialygrowinggivenhighercontributions shows the resulting increase

in net yearly inflows into Afores, which have doubled in just four years.

AUM growth accelerated from an average of 12% per year over 2010–2022 to roughly

17% since contributions began rising in 2023 (Figure 1AUMgrowthistheresultofincreasingcontributionsandpositivereturns). As a result, assets are up more

than 70% in just three and a half years and currently account for 25% of GDP (Figure 2AUMcurentlyrepresent25%ofGDP). These

dynamics should strengthen further over the next few years as the contribution rate continues

to climb, an effect that, together with improving Afores’ returns, will keep compounding over

time.

Figure 1: AUM growth is the result of increasing Figure 2: AUM currently represent 25% of GDP

contributions and positive returns Afores’ AUM; %GDP

Afores AUM; in MXNbn

10,000 Jun-26, 8,964 25 23 25

9,000

8,000 20 20 20 19 20

7,000 16

6,000 15 13 13 13 14 14

5,000 Dec-22, 5,224 10 10 12 12

4,000 10

3,000

2,000 5