Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Banco-delBancoBajio (BBAJIOO.MX)del Bajio (BBAJIOO.MX)

EW on weaker growth and less earnings visibility; attractive valuation

PRICE TARGET M$63.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Our valuation work and price targets are based on residual income analysis. In our residual Given uncertainty around international trade

income model, the value of the firm is mainly a function of the magnitude of the spread agreements, we think supply & demand for

between return on equity and cost of equity (performance spread) and the time period in commercial and corporate credit may remain

which management can generate returns in excess of the cost of equity (economic growth somewhat subdued in 2026. Limited

horizon). Our valuation model uses a discount rate of 13.8% and long-term ROAE of 16%. visibility into the policy path also results in

more variability for earnings. Meanwhile,

M$62.15 Bajío's asset sensitive balance sheet serves

Consensus Price Target Distribution M$50.70 M$80.00 as an additional headwind for earnings over

MS PT the coming 6-12 months as rates continue to

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates decline gradually. That said, valuation is

undemanding, with Bajío trading at 1.4x

P/BV, contributing to our Equal-weight

RISK REWARD CHART rating.

MXN Consensus Rating Distribution

M$81.00M$81.00(+42.48%)M$81.00(+42.48%)(+42.48%) 62% Overweight

80 38% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

M$63.00M$63.00(+10.82%)M$63.00(+10.82%)(+10.82%) MS Rating

60 M$56.85M$56.85M$56.85

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

M$32.00M$32.00(-43.71%)M$32.00(-43.71%)(-43.71%)

AUG '25 FEB '26 AUG '26 AUG '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE M$81.00 BASE CASE M$63.00 BEAR CASE M$32.00