Spotify: Solid 2Q, But Lighter MAUs & Profit Outlook, w/Focus on Gross Margins, 2H Net Adds, & AI Initiatives

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Spotify: Solid 2Q, But Lighter MAUs & Profit Outlook, w/Focus on Gross Margins, 2H Net Adds, & AI Initiatives

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

04 August 2026

Spotify Overweight

SPOT, SPOT US

Solid 2Q, But Lighter MAUs & Profit Outlook, w/Focus Price (03 Aug 26):$486.33

on Gross Margins, 2H Net Adds, & AI Initiatives

Internet - Large Cap / Mid & Small

• Our Initial Take: 2Q results were solid, in our view, w/SPOT delivering Cap

upside to subs and profit, but MAUs were ~1M below guidance & revenue was Doug Anmuth AC

in line. 3Q guidance was more mixed, w/modest upside across revenue, (1-212) 622-6571

supported by ~200bps FX tailwinds (vs. ~70bps headwind in 2Q), but douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com

including softer MAUs (~11M implied net adds vs. 16M in 2Q). 3Q gross Bryan M. Smilek

margin steps down ~50bpq Q/Q to 32.9% (+130bps Y/Y), we believe due to (1-212) 622-8886

bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com

typical seasonal regulatory charges, contributing to 3Q op margin below

Daniel Pfeiffer

expectations. SPOT concurrently announced an AI licensing deal w/Merlin,

(1-212) 622-0161

and we look for color on rollout timing and monetization path. daniel.pfeiffer@jpmchase.com

• 2Q Upside Across Gross Margin & Operating Income. 2Q Gross Margin of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

33.4% came in ~30bps ahead of mgmt’s 33.1% guide & JPMe/consensus of

31.1%, and was in line w/ many buyside expectations, per our conversations.

Key drivers of +190bps Y/Y improvement included Premium Revenue growth

outpacing music costs net of Marketplace, Audiobook, & Video Podcast costs,

along with improved Ad-Supported margins driven by favorable Podcast & tax

impacts. Operating Income of €655M included €1M Social Charges, & was

above mgmt’s €630M guide, & compared with JPMe/consensus of €633M/

€637M.