Aena Conference Call Feedback

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aena Conference Call Feedback

Elodie Rall AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-5911 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

elodie.rall@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Aena (Neutral; Price Target: €24.00)

Investment Thesis

With traffic momentum remaining healthy relative to peers and the dividend yield

remaining attractive, we see little reason for share price underperformance in the coming

months, particularly now that the CNMC has given its opinion on the company’s DORA III

proposal and with the headwind from rising Opex now appreciated by consensus after the

miss in Q1. However, on a longer term basis, we continue to see a less attractive equity story

than historically, with the company’s strengths over the last decade (traffic outperformance,

sector-leading FCF yields and low capex requirements) now replaced by traffic normalizing

relative to the sector, a major capex program and declining FCF.

Valuation

We value Aena using our mixed DCF/SOTP framework for the European airport space. Our

methodology takes 50% of our DCF per share valuation and 50% of our SOTP per share

valuation. Our DCF valuation is predicated on the same 1% long-term growth rate

assumption we use for the other European airports and an applied WACC of 7.44%, in line

with the CNMC’s recommendation. Our SOTP valuation methodology values the aviation

division by forecasting the RAB in 2031 - incorporating DORA III capex - and then taking

a discounted PV for the end of 2026. The Retail and Real Estate businesses are valued

according to European property EV/EBTIDA multiples. International interests are

accounted for using book value or market value (GAP).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

The main risks to our target price and our N recommendation are: 1) Better-or-worse than