The Cheesecake Factory, Inc.: All Cylinders Click for a Rare F26 Core CAKE & Flower Child Performance but North Italia Drags/Remains an Opportunity.

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Cheesecake Factory, Inc.: All Cylinders Click for a Rare F26 Core CAKE & Flower Child Performance but North Italia Drags/Remains an Opportunity.

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

The Cheesecake Factory, Inc.

All Cylinders Click for a Rare F26 Core CAKE & Flower Neutral

Child Performance but North Italia Drags/Remains an CAKE, CAKE US

Opportunity. Price (28 Jul 26):$89.01

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$92.00

Prior (Dec-26):$68.00

Headline core Cheesecake Factory comps of +5.8% were the highest at the brand

(excluding Covid recovery) for at least the last ~20 years including positive traffic Restaurants

of 270bps. The brand’s store margins at 20.2% were last recorded at such levels in John Ivankoe AC

2Q16, and prior to that in 2Q05-2Q07 but with prime costs (food & paper) at 56- (1-212) 622-6487

57% versus the current 54-55% levels. 2Q26 results reinforce our view that john.ivankoe@jpmorgan.com

experiential dining continues to win share as consumers seek consistently well- Rahul Krotthapalli

operated/staffed & differentiated food/atmosphere experiences. CAKE’s core (1-212) 622-2408

rahul.krotthapalli@jpmorgan.com

concept success is further supported by both the analog of scratch cooking and the

Christabel Rocha

digital of a new app launched on April 1, 2026. The app is backed by much-

(1-212) 622-9184

improved social and digital media (both paid and unpaid), and a growing loyalty christabel.rocha@jpmchase.com

program launched on June 1, 2023. Together with menu innovation, these provide J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

incremental traffic levers that don't rely on discounting.

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

• We are establishing a Dec-27 price target of $92, up from our $68 Dec-26 Prev Cur Δ

price target, based on 9.5x C29E Ebitda (excluding FC) plus the Adj.