Nordic Insurance: Quality without a catalyst - downgrading Tryg from N to UW and Sampo from OW to N

研报英文原文证据摘录

Nordic Insurance: Quality without a catalyst - downgrading Tryg from N to UW and Sampo from OW to N

Nadia Claressa AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-7613 04 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

High-quality stocks with a lack of catalysts

The Nordic insurers have long commanded a market premium, reflecting their defensive

characteristics, consistent delivery of superior and stable underwriting margins and

attractive P&C market fundamentals. While these defensive, stable qualities remain

intact, we no longer see them as sufficient to drive a re-rating despite the material

underperformance YTD given the absence of catalysts in the near-term. We downgrade

Tryg from Neutral to Underweight and Sampo from Overweight to Neutral, maintaining

our relative preference for Sampo given the stronger earnings growth profile it offers

while at comparable 2027E P/E multiple of ~15.5x.

Tryg - downgrading from N to UW - PT DKK 140

• Weak earnings growth profile relative to the sector. Tryg is a stable, high quality

company with one of the lowest asset risks in the sector. However, we expect it to

deliver one of the lowest EPS growth profiles in the sector, at ~3% over 2025–28E

based on JPMe vs a sector average of ~7.5%. The gap reflects a combination of

softer topline momentum and limited scope for further margin expansion from

already very strong levels. When we set this growth outlook against the current

valuation (~25% premium to the SXIP) the stock looks demanding on a growth-

adjusted basis, particularly in the context of the European Insurance sector.

• Top-line growth remains a ‘show-me’ story. Topline growth has been the key

focus for Tryg after falling short of market expectations through 2026. Management