US July Sales: Market slightly down, EU OEMs share up, Stellantis incentives still high

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US July Sales: Market slightly down, EU OEMs share up, Stellantis incentives still high

Update

August 4, 2026 07:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MAutos & Shared Mobility | Europe Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan

Equity Analyst

US July Sales: Market slightly Javier.Martinez.Olcoz@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +34 9141-81289

Shaqeal A Kirunda

Equity Analystdown, EU OEMs share up, Shaqeal.Kirunda@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0736

Matias Rodriguez Florez-Estrada

Research AssociateStellantis incentives still high

Matias.Rodriguez@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1091

Stellantis' share keeps improving marginally YoY and MoM, with Autos & Shared Mobility

Europe

still high inventory and incentives. Market ahead of consensus, Industry View In-Line

inventories keep growing, while incentives are now down YoY.

Exhibit 1 : US market share in July (YoY)

BMW and MBG share up again, VW is down, while Porsche

Ford -1.2%

Tesla -1.0%remains flat. VW Group -0.5%

GM -0.4%

Other -0.3%

Key Takeaways PorscheJLR 0.0% 0.0%

Toyota 0.1%

US market above consensus: adj -2% YoY StellantisBMW 0.1%0.2%

Nissan 0.2%

Share YoY: Stellantis +19bps (trucks-driven), VW -45bps, BMW +14bps, MBG Mercedes-BenzVolvo 0.3%0.4%

+36bps, Porsche -1bps HyundaiHonda 0.7% 1.3%

-1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

Incentives: -10% YoY - another jump for Porsche, up for Stellantis and MBG; US - Market Share YoY Change (% Points)

lower for VW and BMW Source: Motor Intelligence, Morgan Stanley Research

Inventory days YoY: MBG and Porsche down; Stellantis, VW and BMW up

Exhibit 2 : MS Tracker vs Consensus US

Beating consensus on US sales: BMW, MBG, Stellantis. Lagging behind: Porsche estimates

MS Tracker 3Q26e 2026e

US Jul-26 Last 3M YTD Consensus Consensus