2Q26F and FY26F forecast revisions

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26F and FY26F forecast revisions

Global Markets Research

Aier 300015.SZ 300015 CH 31 July 2026

EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS

Rating2Q26F and FY26F forecast revisions Remains Buy

Target priceSupplemental tax payment dragged down 2Q26 earnings Reduced from CNY 13.13and Brazil clinics acquisition helps top line a bit in 2H26F CNY 13.32

We estimate 2Q26F sales were up 6% y-y, while earnings slumped 51% y-y Closing30 July 2026price CNY 9.08

We estimate Aier’s 2Q26F revenue went up 6% y-y (vs 6% y-y in 1Q26) to CNY5.8bn

(lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY5.96bn), on the assumption of a Implied upside +44.6%

slight traffic increase and pricing rise due to the higher weight of high-end surgeries. By

segment, in 1H26F we estimate refractive/cataract/examination and treatment revenue to Market Cap (USD mn) 12,496.3

book 9%/3%/10% y-y growth to CNY5.0bn/CNY1.8bn/CNY3.0bn. ADT (USD mn) 132.0

On the margins front, in 2Q26F, we forecast gross margin of 48.0% (-0.9pp y-y) and a flat

Relative performance chartoperating margin of 23.8%, thanks to a lower opex ratio. Dragged by higher other

expense and higher tax expense (see our report: QuickNote-Aier(300015CH)(Buy)-

Sharepricedownonsupplementedtaxpayment) of CNY633mn (vs CNY206mn in

2Q25). We estimate 2Q26F net profit to shareholders was CNY487mn(-51% y-y) in

2Q26F.

For 2H26F, we expect the company to register higher top line growth of 16% y-y, on a low

base of 2H25, to CNY12.6bn, as well as the contribution (we forecast CNY500mn) from

the acquired Brazilian ophthalmology services groups (see our report: QuickNote-Aier

(300015CH)(Buy)-ToacquirethelargestophthalmologychaininLatinAmerica).

Considering these target companies’ lower margin and transaction fees paid, along with