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2Q26 Earnings First Take – Base44 Economics Improve; Partner Trends Remain the Key Debate
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2Q26 Earnings First Take – Base44 Economics Improve; Partner Trends Remain the Key Debate
UpdateM2. FY26 Outlook Maintained; Q3 Guide Appears Measured. Wix maintained
its outlook for: (1) Low- to mid-teens FY26 revenue growth with low-teens
bookings growth. Management expects bookings to continue lagging
revenue by several points because softer Partners activity affects bookings
before the related revenue base. (2) Low-double-digit Q3 revenue growth.
Consensus' Q3 revenue of $565.8M, +12%, appears near the upper end of
the qualitative outlook but measured against 15% in Q2. (3) High-teens FCF
margin in FY26 excluding acquisition and restructuring costs. Although Base1
should support gross-margin improvement, Wix intends to reinvest much of
the savings into Base44 marketing. Therefore, better AI economics increase
Wix’s capacity to fund growth more than they create immediate earnings
upside.
3. Base1 Materially Improves the Base44 Margin Narrative. Following the
launch of Base1, Base44’s proprietary software-creation model, management
expects lower inference costs to contribute approximately two points of
consolidated gross-margin improvement versus 1H26. Consequently, Base44
non-GAAP gross margin will reach ~60% in 2H26, versus near-zero entering
the year. While still remaining below core Wix economics, it would establish
a clearer path toward attractive incremental profitability and directly
addresses concerns that Base44’s growth could remain structurally margin
dilutive. Key questions for the call are the durability of the cost savings,
continued reliance on third-party models, and whether product quality and
retention remain stable as workloads migrate to Base1.
4. Partners Remains the Principal Risk. Management indicated that some
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