Yum Brands: View YUM Shares as Better to Buy in the $140s as Model Rebuild Post-Pizza Hut Allows a Finer Tuned Valuation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Yum Brands: View YUM Shares as Better to Buy in the $140s as Model Rebuild Post-Pizza Hut Allows a Finer Tuned Valuation

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

04 August 2026

Yum Brands

View YUM Shares as Better to Buy in the $140s as Overweight

Model Rebuild Post-Pizza Hut Allows a Finer Tuned YUM, YUM US

Valuation Price (03 Aug 26):$148.80

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$160.00

Prior (Dec-26):$170.00

We originally upgraded YUM at $142.70 on June 25 or up ~5% vs ~24% for

SPX. Since that time, the 10 TSY has jumped from 4.30% to 4.70% and contributed Restaurants

to the broad underperformance of other FCF valued global QSR names which have John Ivankoe AC

ranged from down 8% at MCD, down 11% at QSR and down 20% at DPZ. Broad (1-212) 622-6487

pressure on the lower income consumer has been evident since 2H23, contributing john.ivankoe@jpmorgan.com

to sector-wide SSS pressure following years of above average menu pricing in Rahul Krotthapalli

addition to much more selective US new unit growth. (1-212) 622-2408

rahul.krotthapalli@jpmorgan.com

Christabel Rocha

• Establishing Dec-27 price target of $160 based on 4.75% post-transaction (1-212) 622-9184

F30 FCF yield discounted back at 7%. We continue to adjust out ~$2b from christabel.rocha@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

current equity value for potential tax implications (see more detail below).

Steady FCF growth is matched by a relatively capex-light franchise model,

with total net capex now at ~12% of Ebitda (pvs ~10%) F26-F30 and peaking Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

at $475m vs the 7-8% of Ebitda from F19-24. This compares to a capex range Adj. EPS ($)

of 10-20% Ebitda at other large franchise QSR peers such as DPZ, QSR/RBI 2025A 2026E 2027E

and MCD.