Matson Inc.: 2Q Results: A Differentiated Model Proves Its Premium; Reiterate Overweight; PT to $270

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Matson Inc.: 2Q Results: A Differentiated Model Proves Its Premium; Reiterate Overweight; PT to $270

erly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

• Higher Estimates Drive Our Move to $270: We raise our estimates to reflect Adj. EPS ($)

stronger China rates and volumes. Management expects FY26 consolidated 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 2.18 1.85A

operating income above the $500M achieved in 2025, Ocean Transportation Q2 2.92 4.27A

above $456M, Logistics above $44M, and 3Q Ocean Transportation operating Q3 4.24 6.09

income roughly 45% above the $147.4 million prior-year level. Our FY26 Q4 4.60 3.84

FY 13.81 16.01 17.12

revenue estimate moves to $3.62B and EBITDA to $799M (from $3.45B and

$742M, respectively), with FY27 revenue and EBITDA moving to $3.75B and Style Exposure

$837M from $3.63B and $772M. We establish a Dec-27 price target of $270

based on an unchanged 9.5x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our 2027

EBITDA estimate. Continued share repo further supports per-share value.

• Momentum, Mix, and Cash Firing Together: China remains the standout,

with 2Q volume up 15.2% and higher-than-expected freight rates carrying

momentum from the post-Lunar New Year period; freight demand through

July remained in excess of capacity. Southeast Asia is now 20% to 25% of

weekly China volume, diversifying the cargo mix at attractive yields. Cash

generation is robust, with trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $584.1

million funding $122.2 million of year-to-date repurchases. Total debt

declined to $341.3 million, and the Aloha Class newbuilds remain on schedule.

• The 4Q Comp and Soft Spots to Monitor: The 4Q26 setup is the key watch

item. Management expects Ocean Transportation operating income modestly

below the $136M achieved in 4Q25 with freight rates expected to step down