Peeling Back The Onion On 2Q26 NIM, Yield and Mix Trends: US Large Cap and Midcap Banks | North America

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Peeling Back The Onion On 2Q26 NIM, Yield and Mix Trends: US Large Cap and Midcap Banks | North America

Idea

August 4, 2026 03:03 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Large Cap and Midcap Banks | North America Manan Gosalia

Equity Analyst

Peeling Back The Onion On Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.comRyan Kenny, CFA +1 212 761-4092

Ryan.Kenny@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1664

2Q26 NIM, Yield and Mix Trends Brian Wilczynski, CFA

Brian.Wilczynski@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1084

Cyclical and secular pressures are set to push deposit costs Connell J Schmitz

higher in the back half of the year and 2Q26 gave us an early ResearchConnell.Schmitz@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-6252

read. Deposit costs were higher at half the group while loan Ben Bayanfar

yields lower at a majority of our group (both moved on rate). ResearchBen.Bayanfar@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-0649

Most of the group missed on NIM through earnings. Alexander L Ward

Research Associate

Cyclical and secular factors at play are poised to pressure deposit costs higher in Alex.Ward@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-3096

2H26. We came into 2Q earnings expecting deposit competition to intensify through Large Cap Banks

the back half of the year driven by both cyclical and secular factors. On the cyclical North America

Industry View Attractive

side, with the forward curve now pricing in a full rate hike by 4Q26, rates staying

What's Inside:

higher-for-longer, and the likelihood of more volatility as we get less forward

guidance from the Fed, we expect more pressure on deposit costs is coming. Even if • Mix vs Yield Analysis: 2Q26 vs 1Q26

we don't get rate hikes this year (still our base case), the risks to the upside alone • Funding Costs vs Loan Growth Trends