Model Updates

研报英文原文证据摘录

Model Updates

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– AGCO-CorpAGCO(AGCO.N)Corp (AGCO.N)

Ag Pure-Play Faces A Steeper Climb

PRICE TARGET $99.00 UNDERWEIGHT THESIS

We apply a ~18x multiple to AGCO's 2026e earnings, multiple reflects below mid cycle Ag cycle downturn has been well

earnings and current market view discount. telegraphed and understood by the market.

However, our optimism for AGCO shares is

$129.88 tempered by a relatively higher level of NA

Consensus Price Target Distribution $99.00 $160.00 inventory overhang compared to peers and a

MS PT steeper climb ahead for its Fendt market

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates share growth strategy (key pillar of growth).

As such, we see risk for AGCO to

underperform its earnings algorithm

RISK REWARD CHART expectations and peers.

USD Consensus Rating Distribution

29% Overweight

$150.00$150.00(+44.34%)$150.00(+44.34%)(+44.34%)

160 59% Equal-weight

12% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$103.92$103.92$103.92

$99.00$99.00(-4.73%)$99.00(-4.73%)(-4.73%)

80 Risk Reward Themes

$71.00$71.00(-31.68%)$71.00(-31.68%)(-31.68%) Self-help: Positive

40 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

AUG '25 FEB '26 AUG '26 AUG '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE $150.00 BASE CASE $99.00 BEAR CASE $71.00

~18x Bull Case EPS of $8.31 ~18x Base Case 2026e EPS of $5.49 ~20x Bear Case 2025e EPS of $3.55

The Ag cycle rebounds better than expected Revenues increase roughly flat in 2026, as Ag markets stay further depressed as

in 2026 driven by lack of underproduction. we expect continued weakness in North and pressured crop prices weigh on farmer

Org. revenue growth increases ~HSD% in Latin America. EBIT margins contract slightly sentiment.