Mexico: June Remittances - Disappointing end of quarter

研报英文原文证据摘录

Mexico: June Remittances - Disappointing end of quarter

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

03 August 2026

Mexico

June Remittances - Disappointing end of quarter

• June remittances up 4.2%oya; base effects hide disappointing details EM, Economics Research

• MXN strength evidences a less optimistic scenario regarding the recovery Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

• The silver lining was the rebound in the number of transfers gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

• Remittances to improve in 2H26, although with limited effects on growth BancoMúltiple,J.P.Morgan,J.P.MorganS.A.,GrupoInstituciónFinancierode Banca

After a rebound in 1Q26, June data confirmed a downward correction in Santiago Homberg Saury

remittances flows at the end of 2Q26, with inflows totaling US$5.47bn, below our (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

US$5.55bn forecast. In annual terms, however, base effects made the picture J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

appear somewhat better than the underlying trend, with remittances rising Morgan Grupo Financiero

4.2%oya in June and 3.0%ytd. In seasonally adjusted terms, this was equivalent to

a 2.4% sequential decline and a 7.3%saar contraction during the second quarter.

Remittances

US$bn (12m sum) MXN$bn (12m sum)

USD 65 1275

1200 MXN 61

55 1050

Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26

Source: J.P. Morgan with data from Banxico

When converted into MXN, the positive annual growth rate in remittances turns

negative (-4.9%oya) as a result of the 8.7% appreciation of the peso against the US

dollar. Similarly, in seasonally adjusted terms, the decline in quarterly momentum

is even more pronounced in local-currency terms, with remittances falling

11.0%saar.

One of the few positive developments in the report was the marginal increase in the