2Q26: Market recovery delayed further

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26: Market recovery delayed further

Update

August 3, 2026 08:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MFresenius Medical Care AG | Europe Aisyah Noor

Equity Analyst

2Q26: Market recovery delayed Aisyah.Noor@morganstanley.comAlejandra Galindez +44 20 7425-6177

Research Associate

Alejandra.Galindez@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2699

further Jack Reynolds-Clark, CFA

Jack.Reynolds-clark@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3474

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMEG.DE, FME GR)

Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision lower

Healthcare Services | Germany

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Underweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View In-Line

Price target €32.00

Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026) €44.86

Key Takeaways 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) €47.86-34.57€13,063

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* €10,628

Expect a negative share price reaction to FME's 2Q26 pre-release, on weaker than EV, curr (mn)* €23,232

expected US same market treatment growth (SMTG)

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

US SMTG was -0.9% (vs -0.4% in 1Q26, 0% in 2Q25), vs expectations of ~-0.4%

2Q sales were 1% ahead of cons, driven by Value based Care

2Q EBIT was +11% above cons, driven by one-off TDAPA tailwinds in the quarter

MS view: We expect the 2Q26 result to be received negatively by the market as it

reflects a deterioration in US same-market treatment growth for FME, comes in -

50bps below consensus expectations of ~-0.4% US SMTG, and extends the

company's expected return to a positive market growth environment. The company

coupled its 2Q pre-release with the announcement of a change in its US Care