Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. Ltd - A: July IA order >30% Y/Y + MIR 2Q26 market share gains; 2Q26 preview points to IA-led rebound

研报英文原文证据摘录

Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co. Ltd - A: July IA order >30% Y/Y + MIR 2Q26 market share gains; 2Q26 preview points to IA-led rebound

visions. A clean step-up would help shift

the debate back towards structural pricing power rather than one-off quarter-to-quarter

noise.

• 2Q26 preview looks deliverable on paper, but headline cleanliness matters more

than ever after two misses.We forecast c.20% Y/Y sales growth and c.10% profit growth

in 2Q26E, led by IA at ~40% Y/Y on sustained strong order momentum and easing supply

constraints, with elevator trending stable and NEV staying muted at single-digit growth.

On margins, we model modest Q/Q consolidated GPM improvement to ~30% vs. 29%

in 1Q26, driven mainly by mix and early pricing benefit. The key is the quality of

earnings: the market is likely to discount a “beat” driven by non-recurring items and

punish a “miss” even if framed as transitory, because both outcomes re-open the debate

around earnings repeatability. We will therefore isolate underlying operating

performance by adjusting for major one-offs (e.g., prior Rmb2-300mm gains) and assess

whether core IA + elevator profit growth is tracking closer to ~35% Y/Y on an implied

basis, which would validate that the engine of the story remains intact.

• NEV remains the primary downside risk, because mix-driven dilution can

overwhelm IA strength even in an upcycle. NEV powertrain and motor categories

remain among the most competitive auto-parts pockets, with fast-moving customer/

product mix and limited ability to pass through cost inflation relative to IA. The 1Q26

profit softness highlighted how quickly NEV dilution can drag consolidated profitability

even when IA is strong, and this is exactly why investors have become more sensitive to