Lear Corporation: Growth re-acceleration further out

研报英文原文证据摘录

Lear Corporation: Growth re-acceleration further out

Global Research

31 July 2026ab

Lear Corporation Equities

United StatesGrowth re-acceleration further out

Auto Parts

12-month rating Neutral

Sales growth acceleration more likely in 2028/29 than 2027. LEA’s 2Q26 update

threw some caution on pace of growth with acceleration likely more in 28/29 than 27.

12m price target US$141.00

This likely means some negative revisions to 2027 consensus estimates but more

importantly a recalibration of what had become a more bullish buyside on stronger 2027

growth. That said, investors should be calibrated for a 2027 topline that is flattish to Price (31 Jul 2026) US$130.94

modestly positive, modest EBIT improvement on self-help margin expansion (maybe 10- RIC: LEA.N BBG: LEA US

20bps), but DD% EPS growth aided by share buybacks. We were already more cautious

on 2027 so essentially no change to our 2027 EBIT forecast of ~$1.2bn and our PT Trading data and key metrics

remains $141. 52-wk range US$148.68-92.93

Market cap. US$6.59b

Shares o/s 50.3m (COM)

Some unique factors pressure 2H26… Updated 2026 guidance implies 2H26 sales of

$11.7bn -3% h/h and EBIT of ~$530mm or -13% h/h. The heavy negative conversion is Free float 100%

due to 1) $190mm sales higher in 2H vs. 1H from tariff recovery with no earnings Avg. daily volume ('000) 202

attached; 2) wind down of existing business at higher variable profit (15-20%) vs. ramp Avg. daily value (m) US$28.1

up of new business backlog at lower variable profit (8-10%), 3) calendar impact (1Q Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$5.14b

benefit from extra days with payback in 4Q), 4) GM full-size pickup changeover in 2H26 P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

that is a very high margin program for LEA. 3Q indicated to $5.8-$5.9bn in sales w/ Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.9x