Arthur J. Gallagher & Co: 2Q26: Solid Execution, No Material Changes to Outlook

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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co: 2Q26: Solid Execution, No Material Changes to Outlook

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

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EquitiesArthur J. Gallagher & Co

2Q26: Solid Execution, No Material Changes to United States

Outlook Insurance, Property & Casualty

12-month rating Buy

12m price target US$291.00

Q: How would we expect investors to react?

A: We would expect a neutral to modestly positive market reaction to AJG’s 2Q26

results. Results were largely in line with the pre-quarter expectations outlined at the June Price (30 Jul 2026) US$256.46

Investor Day. The 2026 outlook was also broadly maintained, with modest adjustments, RIC: AJG.N BBG: AJG US

including slightly lower reinsurance organic growth, offset by stronger APAC and Risk

Trading data and key metrics

Management. Capital deployment remains focused on M&A, although share

repurchases this quarter came in better than expected, with acquisition activity currently 52-wk range US$310.48-192.00

running at ~80% of historical levels and potentially improving through 2H26. Market cap. US$66.8b

Management also reiterated the long-term AI opportunity, highlighting productivity Shares o/s 260m (COM)

gains that could support ~400bps of incremental margin expansion over the next 3-5 Free float 65%

years, which neither consensus nor our estimates are currently pricing in. We rate AJG as Avg. daily volume ('000) 524

a Buy, as we continue to see upside to consensus margin expectations, driven primarily Avg. daily value (m) US$116.8

by AssuredPartners synergies. Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$24.9b

P/BV (12/26E) 2.6x

How did the results compare vs expectations? Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.1x

A: AJG reported 2Q26 cash EPS of $2.84, slightly above UBSe of $2.83 and

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

consensus of $2.81.