Knorr-Bremse AG: Travel & arrive catalysed. Now move on: Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Knorr-Bremse AG: Travel & arrive catalysed. Now move on: Buy

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesKnorr-Bremse AG

Travel & arrive catalysed. Now move on: Buy Germany

Industrial, Diversified

12-month rating Buy

Knorr-Bremse shares were some of the most telegraphed 'travel & arrive'

stories in the sector in the months leading up to today. This was as today's 12m price target €123.00

targets were not seen surprising positively. Only just before the results the

shares spiked higher and are reversing the move today on 'travel & arrive'. With

Price (30 Jul 2026) €99.85this overhang out of the way, we think the shares can perform again. Why? The

targets for the main value driver, rail, were nicely ahead and are likely to be RIC: KBX.DE BBG: KBX GR

outperformed. We think truck targets may be overly cautious to ensure they

Trading data and key metrics

don't miss. Q3 is guided above consensus. We reiterate our Buy and keep our

€123 price target on somewhat higher estimates. 52-wk range €115.40-78.20

Market cap. €16.1b/US$18.4b

Shares o/s 161m (ORD)

2030 targets look promising for the main value driver: Knorr guides for 7-9%

average organic growth in rail vs 5% consensus and 20% margin vs 19%. It delivered Free float 41%

8% organic growth in the last years and with this outperforming its 2023 target by Avg. daily volume ('000) 175

150bp and its 16.5% margin target from 2023 will likely be beaten by 100bp. The 2030 Avg. daily value (m) €17.9

truck margin target of up to 14% and midcycle of 13% has to be seen against the Common s/h equity (12/26E) €3.50b

background of Knorr missing its 3-4% organic growth target set in 2023 (likely P/BV (12/26E) 5.0x

delivering 1-2%) and 13.5% margin (likely delivering 12.0%). Therefore, it has an Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.0x