First Read Altria Group Inc Off the 2Q26 conference call

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read Altria Group Inc Off the 2Q26 conference call

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 5.4%

Forecast dividend yield 5.9%

Forecast stock return 11.3%

Market return assumption 9.3%

Forecast excess return 2.1%

Company Description

Altria Group is a leading listed US tobacco/nicotine company with a domestic-focused

portfolio, including Marlboro (cigarettes), Copenhagen (smokeless tobacco), on! (nicotine

pouches), and NJOY (e-vapor). Altria has a JV, Horizon, to commercialize Ploom heated

tobacco products. In 2025, the group recorded net revenue of $20.1bn and adjusted

operating income of $12.3bn. Its targets to 2028 include a mid-single-digit adjusted EPS

CAGR from a $4.87 base in 2022, mid-single-digit dividend-per-share growth, and an

adjusted OCI margin of at least 60%. Also, Altria owns a c8% stake in ABI.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We use a multiples based approach to set our target prices for the tobacco companies, with

reference to factors such as volume change, organic sales growth, organisational change,

tobacco transformation, balance sheet leverage and (comparative) valuation. For MO, our

target price is based on a P/E multiple of 12.4x, applied to our FY27 EPS estimate, rolled

forward.

Company-specific risks for MO include: (a) General consumer preferences and/or government

regulation pertaining to the consumption of Tobacco or Tobacco-related products (including

taxation, restrictions on sales, the introduction or subsidisation of substitute products,

labelling requirements, etc.); (b) Government regulation with respect to commerce and/or

taxation in general; (c) Macroeconomic trends, interest rate, and/or credit environments

within any of our companies' key markets; (d) Competitive intensity between Tobacco