Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited: Solid 2Q; On Track for MSD Volume Growth

研报英文原文证据摘录

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited: Solid 2Q; On Track for MSD Volume Growth

Global Research

30 July 2026ab

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Equities

CanadaSolid 2Q; On Track for MSD Volume Growth

Railroads

12-month rating Buy

2Q roughly in-line; maintaining full year guide

CP's 2Q adjusted EPS of C$1.27/sh was slightly above our estimate of C$1.26 and above 12m price target C$141.00

Consensus of C$1.24/sh. Revenue growth was strong at 12.6% y/y but the

OR deteriorated by about 90 bp y/y due in part to roughly C$25 mm in accident costs

Price (29 Jul 2026) C$128.36

and a similar headwind from higher stock based compensation. CP provided

constructive commentary on their outlook for RTM growth in 2H and maintained their RIC: CP.TO BBG: CP CN

full year guide of MSD RTM growth and LDD EPS growth.

Trading data and key metrics

52-wk range C$131.34-97.09

Optimism on intermodal in 2H; adding headcount to handle growth

Market cap. C$114b/US$81.0b

CP pointed to the expectation of stronger growth in intermodal in 2H26 supported by

Shares o/s 886m (COM)

their Mexico to the US southeast service (SMX) and stronger volumes in their

Free float 100%

international intermodal business supported by growth from St John and Lazaro

Cardenas and a new contract for intermodal business at Vancouver. We believe the Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,284

decline in CP's coal is also likely to be a more moderate headwind in 3Q with potential Avg. daily value (m) C$158.4

for further moderation in 4Q. CP is adding headcount in order to handle 2H growth Common s/h equity (12/26E) C$45.9b

which we expect to be on the order of 400 - 500 people in 2H compared to 2Q. The P/BV (12/26E) 2.5x

combination of higher headcount and also higher PS&O expense vs our prior model plus Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 3.0x