Bachem Holding AG: High visibility with Building K, Sisslerfeld upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Bachem Holding AG: High visibility with Building K, Sisslerfeld upside

Cons.

respectively. Accordingly, we forecast commercial API growth of 39% yoy, implying 12/26E 2.24 2.30 3 2.33

CHF132m of incremental sales, with Building K output potentially higher as existing 12/27E 2.88 2.96 3 3.01

capacity is backfilled with a different product mix. In CMC Development we estimate 12/28E 3.41 3.55 4 3.55

35% growth, driven by the pipeline and higher 2H contribution from oligonucleotides.

With economies of scale offsetting ramp-up costs and a -1.4%-pt FX headwind, we Tanya Hansalik

expect flat EBITDA margins of 30.9%, or 32.3% in LC. Analyst

tanya.hansalik@ubs.com

+41-44-239-2053

Building K ramps until ~2029, Sisslerfeld for 2030+

Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRMPhase 2 of Building K, which includes customer B with UBSe CHF100m minimum

Analyst

commitments p.a. over 2027-31E, is finalizing construction, with ramp-up to begin in patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

2027 and full utilization after 2-3 years. For Sisslerfeld, Bachem is investing >CHF500m, +41-44-239 90 66

including ~CHF100m for infrastructure. Applying a 1:1 capex-to-sales ratio implies

~CHF400m sales potential, with commercial start in 2030, supporting our CHF2.2bn

2032E sales estimate versus CHF1.8bn in 2030E. Bachem is also expanding high-volume

capacity in the US and debottlenecking Bubendorf. We lower FY26 capex to cCHF370m

but keep cCHF400m p.a. for 2027-30E unchanged, implying negative op. FCF until

2029. Following the recently secured CHF500m credit facility, we forecast net debt/

EBITDA rising to ~1.5x from 0.8x, with customer prepayments stable at cCHF0.4-0.5bn.

Valuation: ~20x 2026 EV/EBITDA on our estimates

We value shares on DCF (7.3% WACC/ 3.0% TGR). We see premium to peers (~18x) as