Ciputra Development Adjusting valuation assumptions; reiterate Buy rating

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ciputra Development Adjusting valuation assumptions; reiterate Buy rating

Ciputra Development UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: Can presales grow amid sector challenges?

Yes. We expect 2026 to be the inflection point and for flat YoY presales to bottom and record a

4% CAGR in the 2026-28E. We believe this will be driven by CTRA's diversified projects (location and

segment) that allow it to offer products that better suit market demand. CTRA has been preparing

new infrastructure and projects to launch in the next one to two years after limited launches in the

past two years as the focus was skewed to incentive-led housing completion. While sector challenges

like high mortgage rates and policy uncertainties remain, we expect CTRA's multi-location projects

will allow it to navigate the challenges better than perceived by the market.

Q: Can profitability be sustained amid soft purchasing power?

Yes. We expect CTRA to sustain a net profit margin above 20% in 2026-28E, higher than the pre-

COVID period of 15%. This should be led by its asset-light business model, focus on high-margin

products and deleveraging.

UBS VIEW We reiterate our Buy rating, as we think consensus is overly pessimistic regarding multiple sector

challenges like high interest rates and policy uncertainties. We expect CTRA to outperform

expectations led by its diversified project portfolio by geography and segment, allowing it to launch

projects that better suit market conditions. Its asset-light business model and net cash position should

drive profitability.

EVIDENCE 1) CTRA has launched several lower-priced projects that we think better appeal to current demand.

2) CTRA raised ASP 5-8% for Q226 new launches vs.