Kazakhstan: A First Crack in Services Inflation

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kazakhstan: A First Crack in Services Inflation

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

03 August 2026

Kazakhstan: A First Crack in

Services Inflation

• Encouraging July print—headline 10.2% oya —with softening across EM, Economic and Policy Research

food, non-food, and services. Khamza Sharifzoda

• Key signal: market-driven services inflation decelerated for the first (44khamza.sharifzoda@jpmorgan.com20) 3493-3571

time (0.9% sa vs 1.3% in June), the stickiest component to date. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• But monthly inflation is still running hot and inflation expectations

remain elevated/volatile, which indicates that disinflation is still early-

stage and reversal-prone.

• We pencil in a 25bp NBK cut in September, conditional on August CPI

cooperating.

Headline inflation came in at 10.2% oya in July (down from 10.3% oya in June),

in line with our forecast (JPMe: 10.2%) and below Bloomberg consensus (10.6%).

In seasonally adjusted sequential terms, monthly inflation eased to 0.8% from

1.0% in June. As usual, we will get the detailed breakdown over the course of the

week, but based on the headline data, inflation fell across all three major categories:

food, non-food, and services.

We have flagged repeatedly that market-driven services inflation had not only

remained sticky but actually accelerated in 2Q26. The July print is the first to show

a meaningful deceleration, with services inflation falling to 0.9% (sa) from 1.3%

(sa) in June. The moderation was driven by recreation & culture, education,

communication, insurance & financial services, and personal care. This is all the

more notable given that the authorities raised administered prices for electricity

and garbage removal.

Non-food inflation also edged lower, to 0.7% (sa) in July from 0.9% (sa) in June.