Ageas: Updating our estimates for the sale of Maybank Ageas

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ageas: Updating our estimates for the sale of Maybank Ageas

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

03 August 2026

Ageas Neutral

AGES.BR, AGS BB

Updating our estimates for the sale of Maybank Ageas Price (31 Jul 26):€71.90

Price Target (Dec-27):€70.00

We update our estimates for the proposed disposal of Ageas’s 30.95% stake in European Insurance

ACMaybank Ageas Holding JV in Malaysia and Singapore, which is expected to close Farooq Hanif

by end-2026. Ageas will lose the earnings stream from this business, but benefit (44 207) 742-8091

from a €450m net capital gain (post-tax) in 2026E. This leads us to raise our 2026E farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

net operating result and EPS by 26%, with a 2026E net operating result of €1.9bn Bingdi Fan, CFA

well in excess of Ageas’s >€1.5bn guidance for 2026. The loss of Asian life and (44-20) 7742-5336

non-life earnings results in a ~3% reduction in our 2027E-28E net operating result bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

and EPS. Kamran M Hossain

(44-20) 3493-3780

At the same time, capital resources will be vastly improved, with an estimated €2bn kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

of HoldCo cash at end-2026E (up from €0.9bn) and a 25ppts increase to our 2026E Nadia Claressa

Solvency II ratio forecast for the Group to 221%. We have raised our forecast for (44-20) 7134-7613

nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

potential losses from bad weather in Portugal in 1H26E, resulting in a reduction in J.P. Morgan Securities plc

our 2026E European non-life insurance results. We summarise the key changes to

our forecasts in Figure 1Ageas–sumaryofchangestoourestimates. Specialist Sales contact details:

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

On its call, Ageas emphasised its desire to re-invest surplus cash resources into the European Financials