JPM | US Healthcare: BMY/ AZN, ABBV, MTD, Hospitals, Medicare IPPS / Medicaid, LH, MedTech Prevs (BDX, ZBH, PODD, Dental and more), TGTX, NBIX, RLAY, IONS/ ARWR, KOD; Today: BSX and BAX IR Calls

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | US Healthcare: BMY/ AZN, ABBV, MTD, Hospitals, Medicare IPPS / Medicaid, LH, MedTech Prevs (BDX, ZBH, PODD, Dental and more), TGTX, NBIX, RLAY, IONS/ ARWR, KOD; Today: BSX and BAX IR Calls

ndustry, we do not anticipate a material impact to the hospitals in 2027 given commentary from

HCA/THC regarding previous participation in the voluntary CRJ program. That said, we believe this only continues to pressure

hospital operators by introducing potential downside risk from penalties to a sizable procedure category within a high-priority

specialty like orthopedics.

Managed Medicaid: CMS April State-Level Medicaid Enrollment Snapshot: Continued: MSD% Y/Y Declines. -

Stansel Note

On Friday, CMS updated its state-level Medicaid snapshot, which provides an interesting view of the Medicaid landscape through

April 2026. As we cover below, Medicaid enrollment continues to attrit, consistent with 1H commentary from MCOs, all of

which we believe saw core Medicaid enrollment decline in 1Q and 2Q, with CNC notably increasing its expectation for y/y

Medicaid enrollment declines during 2Q. Y/Y declines in the CMS data accelerated slightly in early 2026 (down ~4.7% y/y in

April, by our estimates) vs. March 2026 (down ~4.4% y/y, by our estimates). Some of the attrition is driven by programmatic and

reporting changes (see the enrollment shifts in California), but the underlying decline appears to have accelerated in 2026, with

enrollment declining ~0.6% in April (bringing YTD declines to ~1.8% through April 2026, based on our estimates) and returning

to the cadence seen in January/February after a more muted decline in March. More broadly, we see enrollment continuing to

decline throughout 2026, with the April run-rate implying a -5% to -6% full-year decline.