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Investment Companies Daily: Aberdeen trusts’ Saba standstill, EOT scheme, Equity Strategy, BSIF acquisition completes, HICL statement, INPP buybacks, ORIT/CHRY NAVs, HSL/AGVI finals, HOME update, WWH team
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Investment Companies Daily: Aberdeen trusts’ Saba standstill, EOT scheme, Equity Strategy, BSIF acquisition completes, HICL statement, INPP buybacks, ORIT/CHRY NAVs, HSL/AGVI finals, HOME update, WWH team
e previously estimated that the XLT Trains stake write up would
add 1.6pps to NAV and adjusting that to 1.0pps sees our NAV reduce 0.4% on a live basis
and takes 3bps off our steady state return estimate which is 9.1%. That the portfolio is
performing in line with management expectations is positive and it is welcome to see the
dividend target reaffirmed. HICL doesn’t hint at material valuation changes at this stage
although higher actual than assumed inflation would clearly be a positive although likely
a small one. Overall we see no reason to make changes to our estimates other than
adjusting for the XLT uplift. We are Neutral HICL.
• Equity Strategy (Mislav Matejka, CFA) - August Chartbook: Stay constructive - the
downside risk from momentum unwind is fading; Fed unlikely to create problems;
Keep using the dips driven by geopolitics to add - Our bullish equities call for this year
was based on resilient activity, strong earnings momentum and likely no de-anchoring in
inflation expectations, among other things. We believe that main positives are still
tracking. In addition, we have in the past two months called for a rotation and broadening
in market leadership, from what was an exceptionally narrow participation in Q2. It is
very much reassuring that despite the material unwind in momentum factor, global equity
indices – MXWO, SPX, SXXP etc – are all within 1-2% of all-time highs. We stay with
the view that Tech/AI is unlikely to be the dominant driver of returns in 2H, in contrast
to 2025, and are looking for continued broadening.
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