Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Daifuku (6383.T)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Orders growth (%) 12.0 12.0 1.6 (1.6)

Sales (¥, mn) 715,000 715,000 745,000 740,000

Operating Profit Margin (%) 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Intralogistics business grows on EC demand and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

automation investments into labor saving, Stronger-than-expected growth in EC market

streamlining, etc. Semiconductor-related capex accelerates faster 223.0

Medium to long-term semiconductor-related than expected. EPS Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

growth. (¥)

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE consensus data for this metric

Capex sentiment drops considerably amid

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE economic recession.

0-10% Europe ex UK FX: We estimate OP sensitivity of ¥100mn for Sales / 715.0

0-10% Latin America each ¥1 move vs. US$. Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

10-20% Mainland China Additional costs tied to project delays. (¥, bn) consensus data for this metric

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 20-30% China and India

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 20-30% North America

121 30-40% Japan Inst. Owners, % Active 76.2% EBITDA

There are not sufficient brokers supplying (¥, bn) Note:Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate consensus data for this metric Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

MS ALPHA MODELS 82

Net income

5/5 3 Month (¥, bn) Note:consensusThere dataare notforsufficientthis metricbrokers supplying

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Quintile Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research