Irish Banks: Updating forecasts post 1H

研报英文原文证据摘录

Irish Banks: Updating forecasts post 1H

Sheel Shah, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-8455 03 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

sheel.shah@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

AIB (Overweight; Price Target: €11.60)

Investment Thesis

We are OW on AIB given the Group’s exposure to Ireland’s high-growth economy, with

leading market shares in deposit products, stable deposit betas, and strong volume growth

underpinning the NII trajectory – with upside potential. We see the Group’s deposit

franchise as underappreciated by the market, offering low funding costs and representing

a key source of customer relationships, which we believe the Group will defend against

competitors. While Fees represent <20% of revenues, we see stronger growth given Wealth

initiatives to grow AUM, albeit from a low base. We forecast stated ROTE growth to c18%

28E, with cost growth at c2% annually, reflecting increased investment spend which we

believe will leave the Group more digitally efficient and competitive against emerging

threats. Strong capital generation will support a total payout ratio of 105% across the next

3 years at a c9%/y yield, while offering optionality for M&A, and as a result, trades at a

warranted premium to the sector with the potential for EPS upgrades led by NII.

Valuation

Our AIB Dec-27 PT of €11.6 is based on our SOP using 9-12x P/E multiples for 2028E

earnings for the main business lines. We then add end-2028E excess capital above 14.0%

B4 CET1 and discounted DTAs based on forecasted utilisation.

AIB: SOP-based Valuation

Adj post tax Allocated B4 Required B4 RWAs (€bn) Value per share

profit 2028E Capital 2028E CET1 ratio 2028E Valuation basis P/E multiple Value (€m) (€)

Retail & Commercial Banking (€m) 1,270 P/E 12.0x 15,246 8.22