China: A shock absorber for global oil markets amid the Iran war (for now)

研报英文原文证据摘录

China: A shock absorber for global oil markets amid the Iran war (for now)

Global Markets Research

31 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia ex-Japan

Research AnalystsChina: A shock absorber for global oil markets

Asia Economicsamid the Iran war (for now)

Ting Lu - NIHKIn reaction to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, China reduced

ting.lu@nomura.comits oil imports by 30.3% y-o-y (in volume) in Q2 and 41.3% in June. China now is widely

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regarded as being the major shock absorber not only because it is the world’s largest

Harrington Zhang - NIHKcrude oil importer, but also because it holds the world’s biggest strategic petroleum

harrington.zhang@nomura.comreserves (SPR) of around 1,250mb at end-2025, significantly higher than the US, which

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has the second highest level of reserves of 413mb. Supported by this substantial SPR,

which is equivalent to around 112 days of net oil imports, China could afford to slash its oil Hannah Liu - NIHK

hannah.liu@nomura.comimports during one of the worst energy crises in recent decades, helping contain global oil

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prices. We estimate that China has already drawn down 19% of its SPR by end-June and

could gradually increase its oil imports, whenever oil prices fall back to comfortable levels. Jing Wang - NIHK

For global oil markets there is a risk that a sustained energy crisis could push China to jing.wang@nomura.com

+852 2252 1011ramp up its oil imports, worsening the shortage and mounting additional pressure on oil

prices.

Examining potential ways that China could cut oil imports

There has been no evidence of a sudden rise in domestic oil production or electricity

consumption. Export bans on some fuels might only explain a very small drop in oil

imports.