Multiple growth engines ahead; leadership intact

研报英文原文证据摘录

Multiple growth engines ahead; leadership intact

Global Markets Research

Zhongji InnoLight 3308.HK 3308 HK 31 July 2026

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

RatingMultiple growth engines ahead; leadership intact Starts at Buy

Target price2.4T transceiver / NPO to start in 2027, 3.2T / CPO in Starts at HKD 1,595.00

longer term

Closing price HKD 1,028.00 31 July 2026Action: Initiate at Buy with TP of HKD1,595; implying 55% upside

Despite a recent pull-back in the share price, we think the strong fundamental growth drivers for Implied upside +55.2%InnoLight remain unchanged over FY26-28F: 1) 1.6T and Silicon photonics (SiPh) transceiver

upgrades; 2) commercialization of 2.4T coherent-lite transceivers and NPO (near-field packaging Market Cap (USD mn) 152,871.2

optics) beginning 2027F; and 3) 3.2T transceiver, XPO (extra-dense pluggable optics), and CPO ADT (USD mn) 1,464.6

(co-packaged optics) market expansion in the long term. We forecast FY26-27F global

shipments for 800G/1.6T transceivers at 40.8-57.8mn/25.1-68.8mn, and we also estimate

FY27-28F 2.4T transceivers shipments at 3-8mn units and NPO at 8mn/25mn units. Relative performance chart

Therefore, we forecast 77% / 78% revenue / earnings CAGRs in FY26-28F. We initiate

coverage at Buy with a TP of HKD1,595, based on 21x FY27F EPS of CNY65.47, in line with

WIND’s China A share tech/electronic component sector median P/E. The stock is currently

trading at 13.3x FY27F EPS. Key risks to our investment views include a slower product upgrade

cycle, fiercer competition, and more intensive geopolitical tensions.

Margin expansion with ease of components shortage and product upgrades

We think supply bottlenecks for upstream material (i.e., InP wafer) and components (i.e.,