2Q26: UBSe vs. Consensus

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26: UBSe vs. Consensus

Our 2Q Sales Estimates

12/26E

Analyzing tracked trends, $ takeaway for the total company for the 13 weeks ended UBS Cons.

6/27/26 came in at +10.8%. Segmenting by brand, core Celsius saw -5% declines while Q1 0.41 0.41

Alani Nu delivered +52.5% in the same time frame. On the quarter itself, there are Q2E 0.37 0.43

several moving pieces as the company continues to rationalize SKUs across core Celsius Q3E 0.37 0.43

while continuing to ramp distribution around Alani Nu. As such, our core Celsius Q4E 0.29 0.36

estimate underwrites -MSD declines while we forecast Alani Nu to track below 12/26E 1.44 1.61

consumption data (we model +26.2%).due to the distributor transition and lower 12/27E 1.80 1.97

growth from the non-energy/Canada portion of the portfolio. Taken together, our 12/28E 1.96 2.21

+18.1% total sales forecast is in line with consensus.

Peter Grom

Analyst

Where Will 2Q GM Land? peter.grom@ubs.com

Similar to previous quarters, we think investor sentiment primarily hinges on how CELH's +1-212-713 3482

top-line growth evolves from here, particularly given all of the moving pieces. However, Arian Chakravarty

we have also fielded questions around GM given the various moving pieces (freight, Associate Analyst

aluminum costs, completion of Alani Nu/Rockstar consolidation, etc.). For the quarter arian.chakravarty@ubs.com

itself, we expect GM to likely be ~flat sequentially on a % basis as the company +1-212-713 1474

contends with another quarter of unfavorable channel mix dynamics related to Alani Nu Chirac Ndetan

along with slightly less elevated aluminum costs (48.3% vs. consensus at 48.4%). Associate Analyst

chirac.ndetan@ubs.com

Valuation: We Rate CELH Buy; Our NTM Price Target Is $50 +1-212-649 7501