Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Medtide (3880.HK)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Revenue (Rmb, mn) 570 636 807 985

Gross Margin (%) 63.4 61.0 60.5 59.0

Net Profit (Rmb, mn) 222 220 284 348

Net Margin (%) 38.9 34.5 35.2 35.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Clinical trial readouts reported by customers for RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

drugs in late-stage development Regulatory approvals of customers' drugs that

Expanding market demand for diabesity drugs have significant market potential Sales / 635.6

Improved funding environment for early-stage Gross margin expansion from higher utilization Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

biopharma companies and drug programs of manufacturing capacity and milestone (Rmb, mn) consensus data for this metric

payments

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Full H-share circulation leading to higher

liquidity

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 232 0-10% EBIT China and India RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying (Rmb, mn)

consensus data for this metric 10-20% Europe ex UK Deterioration of funding environment for early-

20-30% Japan to mid-stage biopharma companies

20-30% Mainland China Trial failures (and non-approvals) causing late-

30-40% North America stage projects to be aborted 220

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Net income Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (Rmb, mn) consensus data for this metric

Inst. Owners, % Active 100%

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research 1.6

EPS

(Rmb) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

consensus data for this metric

13.9

ROE

(%) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying