Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Telekomunikasi- Telekomunikasi(TLKM.JK) (TLKM.JK)

Lackluster earnings growth profile

PRICE TARGET Rp3,200 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Base case, average of P/E, EV/EBITDA SOTP and DCF. ▪TLKM is the incumbent in mobile and

P/E: 13.3x for 2027e (was 2026e), factoring in a slower growth outlook broadband, but growth is lackluster owing

EV/EBITDA SOTP: mobile segment 5.2x to reflect higher competition ex-Java as the smaller to a weak macro & the drag from legacy

players consolidate, and a weak macro. revenues. We do not see near-term

DCF: Key assumptions - WACC 13.3%, terminal growth 2%. catalysts.

see valuation support with dividend Rp3,550 ▪We

yield at ~7% vs. the 20-year average of 5%,

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rp2,900.00 Rp4,150.00 and the spread over the Indonesian 10-year MS PT

bond yield is 0ppt vs. the 20-year average ofSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

-3ppt.

RISK REWARD CHART Consensus Rating Distribution

88% Overweight

IDR 13% Equal-weight

Rp4,300Rp4,300(+63.50%)Rp4,300(+63.50%)(+63.50%)

0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rp3,200Rp3,200(+21.67%)Rp3,200(+21.67%)(+21.67%)

Rp2,630Rp2,630Rp2,630 Risk Reward Themes

Pricing Power: Negative

2000 View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Rp2,100Rp2,100(-20.15%)Rp2,100(-20.15%)(-20.15%)

AUG '25 FEB '26 AUG '26 AUG '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE Rp4,300 BASE CASE Rp3,200 BEAR CASE Rp2,100

19.5x bull case 2027e EPS 13x base case 2027e EPS 9.7x bear case 2027e EPS

Incumbent continues to dominate market Lackluster growth and lack of near-term De-rating to historical average multiples, as

share gains in a rising ROIC environment, catalysts.