Roblox: Immersive Gaming Platform Navigating Challenging 2H Trends, But Initiatives Present Execution Opportunity; Neutral-Rated & $40 PT

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Roblox: Immersive Gaming Platform Navigating Challenging 2H Trends, But Initiatives Present Execution Opportunity; Neutral-Rated & $40 PT

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

03 August 2026

Roblox

Immersive Gaming Platform Navigating Challenging 2H Neutral

Trends, But Initiatives Present Execution Opportunity; RBLX, RBLX US

Neutral-Rated & $40 PT Price (31 Jul 26):$35.60

Price Target (Dec-27):$40.00

We’re updating our investment thesis, estimates, and price target following Internet - Mid & Small Cap

ACour assumption of coverage. We are moving to Neutral-Rated (from Not Bryan M. Smilek

Rated), and we are establishing a December 2027 PT of $40 based on ~15x (1-212) 622-8886

2028E Covenant Adj. EBITDA of $1.7B. RBLX is a leading immersive gaming bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com

& creation platform offering 120M+ DAUs the ability to explore, create and share Doug Anmuth

experiences from millions of creators. RBLX estimates it has captured ~4% of (1-212) 622-6571

global gaming spend and is targeting 10% share globally (even higher in the US). douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com

Roblox’s Bookings grew at a +33% 2022-2025A CAGR driven by virality of Andrew Watts

content, +31% DAU growth, & +36% Hours Engaged growth. However, Roblox (1-212) 622-9400

andrew.watts@jpmorgan.com

is navigating N-T headwinds from engagement mix shift toward lower-monetizing J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

content, algo changes, age verification initiatives, and challenging Y/Y comps. We

also believe that RBLX will compete for engagement against the highly anticipated

release of GTA VI on 11/19, though RBLX’s demographics should provide relative Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

insulation with O18 users comprising ~27% of age-checked DAUs (~19M age- Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)

checked O18 DAUs).