Yamato Holdings (9064): 1Q results: Management used cost measures to overcome concerns about weak volumes in June

研报英文原文证据摘录

Yamato Holdings (9064): 1Q results: Management used cost measures to overcome concerns about weak volumes in June

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Ryota Himeno AC 03 August 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8639

ryota.himeno@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Yamato Holdings (9064) (Neutral; Price Target: ¥1,900)

Investment Thesis

The overall logistics industry has catalysts in the form of cargo volume recovery and

acceleration in charging appropriate unit prices, but when appraising Yamato, we think

slightly better visibility is needed on its roadmap to completing operational network reforms

and its path to better profitability. Yamato began the full-scale operation of data-driven

optimal vehicle allocation with the aim of realizing benefits from fewer vehicles starting in

FY2026. We think margin improvement will be easier ahead, but there is insufficient

visibility on whether a decline in transportation efficiency can be avoided during the busy

months of July and December. In particular, we will need to pay attention to how the

company readies itself for when costs shift from the current downtrend to an uptrend.

Valuation

Our ¥1,900 price target is based on our end-FY2026 BPS estimate of ¥1,715 and a

theoretical P/B of 1.11x (derived from our FY2026-28 average ROE estimate of 6.5%

divided by cost of equity of 5.8%). The timeframe of our price target is through December

2026.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Higher-than-expected Ta-Q-Bin volume growth

• Higher-than-expected increase in unit prices, stronger pricing

• Sharp fall in delivery costs, improved productivity

Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Temporary decline in productivity as operational improvements progress