Phoenix Mills: Downgrade to Reduce with TP of INR1,700

研报英文原文证据摘录

Phoenix Mills: Downgrade to Reduce with TP of INR1,700

Global Markets Research

Phoenix Mills PHOE.NS PHNX IN 29 July 2026

EQUITY: PROPERTY

RatingDowngrade to Reduce with TP of INR1,700 Down from Neutral Reduce

Target priceConsumption growth should peak out; we see risk of cuts Remains INR 1,700

to FY28F EPS, while valuations have expanded

Closing price INR 1,911 29 July 2026Action: Downgrade to Reduce from Neutral with unchanged TP of INR1,700

We downgrade the stock to Reduce, as: 1) we believe retail consumption growth has peaked and

Implied upsideshould moderate over 2HFY27F-FY28F to 15% (vs 25-30% in 3QFY26-1QFY27) due to a high base -11.0%

from last year, while new malls/expansions are stacked towards the end of 2HFY28F; and 2) we

expect retail income to record a ~15% CAGR (in line with management guidance) and retail Market Cap (USD mn) 7,144.3

revenue/EBITDA to witness an unexciting 13%/14% CAGRs over FY26-28F (vs a 20% CAGR over ADT (USD mn) 14.6

FY23-26). We cut FY28F EBITDA by 2% as we only expect earnings for its mall in Surat in FY29F

(FY28F previously), and our FY28F EPS is 6% below the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Overall,

Relative performance chartdue to the strong scale-up in commercial, we expect EBITDA (ex-residential) at a 17% CAGR (18%

previously) over FY26-28F. The stock trades at 23x FY28F EV/EBITDA (vs average EV/EBTIDA of

20-27x over the past year and 12-15x pre-COVID). Our SOTP-based valuation implies 20x FY28F

EV/EBITDA, at the lower end of its trading range. We believe its core retail business deserves a

lower multiple due to an unexciting growth outlook.

We expect y-y retail consumption growth to moderate over 2HFY27F-FY28F

towards 15% (vs 25-30% in 3QFY26-1QFY27)