Key Call: Tokyo Electron: Progress steady, faster growth toward H2 anticipated

研报英文原文证据摘录

Key Call: Tokyo Electron: Progress steady, faster growth toward H2 anticipated

E 2,733.9 2,848.1 4 2,629.8

CY27 WFE market size outlook is equivalent to +27% yoy, substantially exceeding the

consensus FY3/28 sales growth rate of 22%, even assuming that market share is Atsuhiro Kinoshita

maintained. In addition, of the three products driving share gains, coater/developer Analyst

atsuhiro.kinoshita@ubs.com(over 50%) and etcher (over 25%), were unchanged, while advanced packages were

+81-3-5208 6768

raised from 60% to over 70%. This indicates accelerating investment in advanced logic

driven by inference AI demand. Kenji Yasui

Analyst

kenji.yasui@ubs.com

Valuation: Results impression somewhat positive

+81-3-5208 6211

Assuming H2 is in line with the H1 company plan, OP in FY3/27 would be ¥916bn,

below the consensus of ¥960bn, and the market thus appears to be factoring in margin

improvement in H2 from share gains and price increases. The steady progress in this

acceleration of growth will likely be a significant source of reassurance. Applying an

unchanged EV/EBITDA 28X to our FY3/28 earnings forecast, we are raising our price

target from ¥90,900 to ¥93,600. EV/EBITDA of 28X corresponds to sales growth of

+31.0% yoy in the same period.

Highlights (¥b) 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E

Revenues 1,830.5 2,431.6 2,443.5 3,387.1 4,446.1 5,231.7 5,493.3 5,713.0

Operating profit 456.3 697.3 624.9 1,011.9 1,377.7 1,646.8 1,736.4 1,811.6

Recurring profit 463.2 707.7 630.3 1,019.4 1,385.3 1,654.5 1,743.4 1,819.1

Net profit (reported) 364.0 544.1 574.5 779.9 1,064.1 1,270.7 1,337.8 1,395.7

EPS (reported, basic) (¥) 786.2 1,187.8 1,254.0 1,724.4 2,364.4 2,848.1 3,064.5 3,268.9

Profitability/valuation 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E