Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.: Finally Scaling Fixed Income Execution

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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.: Finally Scaling Fixed Income Execution

Global Research

31 July 2026ab

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. Equities

AmericasFinally Scaling Fixed Income Execution

Diversified Financial

12-month rating Buy

MKTX acquisition could be 6% accretive by year 3; room for upside

We remain bullish on ICE following solid 2Q results and the announced MKTX 12m price target US$195.00

acquisition. The acquisition will significantly scale ICE's fixed income business on the Prior : US$190.00

execution side and allow for synergies with ICE's existing data and trading ecosystem.

Price (30 Jul 2026) US$156.27

Our initial merger model points to 6% accretion by year 3, but could be conservative

given ICE's history of outperforming synergy targets. While the focus is clearly on the RIC: ICE.N BBG: ICE US

deal for now, ICE's core business remains strong, with futures volume improving again

Trading data and key metrics

after a soft 2Q and structural tailwinds (eg. energy transition, AI) intact. Raising

52-wk range US$188.45-122.91

estimates and price target.

Market cap. US$88.1b

Recurring revenue accelerates in Mortgage and FIDS Shares o/s 564m (COM)

Free float 95%

The Exchanges segment revenue growth decelerated to +3% y/y, following an

outsized 1Q as market activity was softer. QTD ADV is trending up 29% y/y, with Avg. daily volume ('000) 1,453

strong growth in energy (ADV trending +23% QTD) and interest rates (ADV Avg. daily value (m) US$206.8

trending +41% QTD). Management expects to continue to see strong growth in Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$30.9b

its interest rates complex in the near term as central bank policies diverge. P/BV (12/26E) 2.8x

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.4x

Recurring revenue growth in the mortgage segment accelerated to +3% y/y due