Columbia Sportswear Company: Core US Weakness and Margin Pressure Persist; Maintain Sell Rating

研报英文原文证据摘录

Columbia Sportswear Company: Core US Weakness and Margin Pressure Persist; Maintain Sell Rating

.65 0 0.65

implies an acceleration to +6% growth in Q4 at the midpoint of the range. While Q2 (0.38) 0.52 NM (0.39)

COLM cited delayed Fall 2026 wholesale shipments as the driver of this cadence, Q3E 1.28 1.20 -6 1.55

we see downside risk of order cancellations given ongoing macro pressures. Q4E 2.07 2.14 3 2.04

12/26E 3.60 4.50 25 3.86

3. Potential headwinds may persist into FY27. Management noted that 12/27E 3.60 3.60 -0 4.23

preliminary Spring 2027 order books point to global wholesale revenue up LSD- 12/28E 3.75 3.75 -0 4.36

MSD%. While we acknowledge international momentum is likely to support

Mauricio Serna, CFA positive growth, we continue to believe softness in the US could constrain overall

Analyst

growth. Plus, persistently elevated oil prices may lead to higher raw product costs mauricio.serna@ubs.com

and pressure FY27 margins. +1-212-713 9028

We increase our FY26 EPSe 25% but keep our FY27-28 EPS forecasts: Jay Sole

We raise our FY26 EPSe 25%, mainly reflecting the benefit of tariff refunds and partially

jay.sole@ubs.com

offset by higher promotional activity. Our FY27-28 EPSe remain broadly unchanged as +1-212-713 3559

we remove the non-recurring impact from this tailwind. More details inside.

Natalie Koltermann

Associate Analyst

Valuation: We maintain our $47 Price Target:

natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

Our $47 PT is based on ~13x our $3.75 FY28 EPSe. Our multiples analysis indicates a $47 +1-212-713 4229

PT puts COLM's valuation in-line with peers in terms of P/E, P/ Sales, and FCF yield. Our

DCF also points to a $47 valuation.

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 3,487 3,369 3,397 3,435 3,522 3,617 3,713 3,811