1Q Results a Mixed Bag: Disparity Caused by High Raw Material Prices and Customer Production Trends

研报英文原文证据摘录

1Q Results a Mixed Bag: Disparity Caused by High Raw Material Prices and Customer Production Trends

Update

August 3, 2026 05:49 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MAuto Parts | Japan Shinji Kakiuchi

Equity Analyst

1Q Results a Mixed Bag: Shinji.Kakiuchi@morganstanleymufg.comHayato Takashima +81 3 6836-5416

Hayato.Takashima@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5414

Disparity Caused by High Raw

Material Prices and Customer

Production Trends Auto Parts

Japan

Industry View In-Line

Key Takeaways

1Q OP growth rate: -21% at Denso, -24% at Aisin, -15% at Toyota Boshoku, +26%

at Toyoda Gosei, -2% at Tokai Rika, +39% at Koito Mfg, +2% at Stanley Electric.

Higher raw material costs: Higher copper, aluminum, and other input costs

negative for Denso, Aisin, Tokai Rika. Higher resin material costs had limited

impact in 1Q, but expect a bigger impact in 2Q.

Timing of earnings impact from higher raw material costs varies among suppliers,

but we expect cost pass-through to progress over the next 6 months and beyond;

medium-term earnings disparity unlikely.

Customer trends: Weak demand from Chinese OEMs weighed on Aisin, Honda’s

passenger vehicle business was weaker than expected for Stanley Electric. New

product contributions supported Toyoda Gosei and Koito Manufacturing.

We expect Toyota business to remain solid outside China. Production trends at

non-Toyota customers warrant close attention, particularly for Aisin and Stanley.

There was a clear earnings disparity among auto parts suppliers that reported F3/26

1Q results, which we attribute to higher raw material costs and customer production

trends. Higher raw material costs: Denso (copper, aluminum, and platinum), Aisin

(aluminum), and Tokai Rika (copper and gold), among others, faced a significant

negative impact.