2Q26 Preview: Strong Retail, Resilient Providers, Mixed Payors

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q26 Preview: Strong Retail, Resilient Providers, Mixed Payors

IdeaM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Hypera- SAHypera(HYPE3.SA)SA (HYPE3.SA)

Semaglutide Patent Expiry Unlocks Significant Upside

PRICE TARGET R$31.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

player in Brazil's retailOur PT is derived from our base case, which is based on a DCF, assuming a Ke of 16.3% ▪Well-positioned

(nominal in R$) and a terminal growth rate of 6.9% pharma, a sector that consistently grows

above GDP. Hypera's diverse portfolio and R$29.47

commercial models boost market capture.

Consensus Price Target Distribution R$24.75 R$34.64 ▪Hypera's market share rises with constant MS PT

product development that improvesSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

portfolio freshness.

institutional ▪Hypera's venture into the

market may bring additional growth,

RISK REWARD CHART potentially lowering average margins but

adding marginal value.

R$38.00R$38.00(+78.66%)R$38.00(+78.66%)(+78.66%)

BRL

Consensus Rating Distribution

32 R$31.00R$31.00(+45.75%)R$31.00(+45.75%)(+45.75%) 83% Overweight

17% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

R$21.27R$21.27R$21.27 MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

R$20.50R$20.50(-3.62%)R$20.50(-3.62%)(-3.62%)

Risk Reward Themes

8 Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE R$38.00 BASE CASE R$31.00 BEAR CASE R$20.50

10.6x Bull Case 2027e EPS 9.1x Base Case 2027e EPS 9.0x Bear Case 2027e EPS

Implies: Revenue growing at 14.2% 2026-28 Implies: Revenue growing at 11.9% 2026-28 Implies: Revenue growing at 10.5% 2026-28

CAGR; adj. EBITDA margin from 32.3% in CAGR; adj. EBITDA margin from 32.3% in CAGR; adj. EBITDA margin from 32.2% in